One Link to heading

Regarding startup companies, there is a rough but interesting theory that if at least two of the following three are strong, the company can survive, and if all three are strong, it becomes an outstanding company.

  1. There are suitable products (product).

  2. There are existing clients (customers).

  3. Ability to deliver products to customers (delivery)

The following is a brief explanation:

This is not a text, but a number (one in Chinese).

Provide a few examples:

Jia Yueting’s car, only one, without two and three, has failed.

In Tesla’s early days, there were 1 and 2, with 2 being favored by Professor Ma, but 3 was weak. According to the above theory, the survival elements have been formed. The Shanghai factory greatly supplemented 3, turning it into the NB company.

Xiaomi and Tesla are quite similar. They both started from scratch with just 1 and 2, and after solving the supply chain issue, they made it to the Fortune 500 list.

Smartisan Mobile is a rather interesting case study, starting out like 1 and 2, but with a weak 3. The first Smartisan T1 was released at a price of 3,000 yuan, which was a whopping 50% higher than Xiaomi’s first model at 1,999 yuan. However, its fan base’s spending power does not belong to the high-end, so it is not a suitable 1. Later, when Smartisan regained its 1 through Nut Pro, 2 had already lost a large number of users. Furthermore, the situation worsened as 3 was never resolved.

So, does that mean only 2 and 3 can succeed in reverse?

The answer is definitely yes.

A large number of relational companies, even without products, can be outsourced after winning the bid, as long as their own funding chain does not encounter problems, they can still succeed.

Two, Link to heading

The most common type of startup company is the one that raises series A funding with only a single round.

At this point, the most crucial factor for success no longer lies with the entrepreneur, but rather with strategic investors, as they have the ability to bring in elements 2 and 3.

The greatest strength of top-tier venture capital firms is their widespread network of social connections. Even if they invest in mediocre or subpar products, they can still achieve success.

Sometimes it’s not the investors’ judgement that is divine, but rather their connections.

However, internet companies are still an interesting topic. For example, do long-term loss-making companies such as Bilibili and Zhihu count as successful? Do heavily-loss-making companies such as Youku and Meituan count as successful? From a financial perspective, they still do not have suitable products, but they have numbers 2 and 3.

Three, Link to heading

The hottest investment target in the past two years has been semiconductor companies, which can be broadly categorized into three types.

A. Wafer fabs: Foundries such as SMIC and Hua Hong, as well as IDM companies like ChangXin, ChangChun and Huahong Microelectronics, Silan Microelectronics.

In theory, they have all three (1, 2, 3). However, due to the risks associated with raw materials, production equipment, and equipment services (in the case of 3), the market is unwilling to provide NB company with a valuation.

B. Equipment vendors, material suppliers, software vendors: Names omitted due to sensitivity.

They commonly have 3, but 2 must be established in the presence of 1. The usefulness of 1 and the availability of foreign parts and materials are well understood by experts in the industry. In any case, every company claims to have independent control over 1 in their external publicity, thus completing the logic of 1, 2, and 3, and often resulting in market demand.

C. Fabless：

These types of companies typically rely heavily on 1, with the support of 2 from venture capital and a majority provided by 3 from semiconductor foundries. Therefore, the success of this category is straightforward and compelling, demonstrated by many companies such as Zhaoxin Semiconductor, Actions Semiconductor, Rockchip Electronics,Sino IC and Silead Inc. Recently, there have been some concerns surrounding 3, although not significant, and at times subject to herd mentality.

Looking back, what internet users often mock as “Sauce technology”(Moutai) is actually a truly complete and seamless solution, with no areas of weakness or risk of disruption.

Four, Link to heading

In recent days, several of the largest technology companies in the United States such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, META, and others have seen their performance suffer greatly. The rapidly rising US dollar interest rates, which are significantly higher than the GDP growth rate, have dealt a severe blow to the real economy.

The global integration of spiderwebs ensnares any unhooked individual. The politicians’ binary logic and grand narratives serve only to excite the public.

Professor Harry G. Frankfurt of Princeton University has a famous book called “On Bullshit”. He believes that people who lie know they are lying, but people who bullshit don’t care whether what they say is true or false. They only care about whether their audience can be fooled.

Thinking that this article is also a serious nonsense, I couldn’t continue writing here.